Baby Boom's Sound and Fury, Signifies Nothing
Professor David Demko, PhD
AgeVenture News Service
Maybe we need to be more like Alfred E. Neuman, "What, me worry?". Sure, the nation's filling up to the brim with all those millions of baby boomers. Twice as many as today's senior citizen population. Just the thought of all those me-generation boomers crawling all over the planet makes you want to reach for the bug spray. Afterall, what's going to happen to the economy, social security, medicare, when the boomers retire. Well, say the experts, nothing is going to happen. Nothing much at all. Seems like all the alarmists might be wrong about the pending doom brought on by the baby boom.
The National Academy on an Aging Society (NAAS) has called into question all the gloom and doom predictions about the impending retirement of baby boomers producing some sort of inevitable national crisis. Sure, there COULD be a crisis, but there are many more possible scenarios based on a variety of factors. The growth rate of the economy. The rate of personal savings. The future health status of the elderly. The resourcefulness of senior citizens. NAAS' study of this issue was supported by The Commonwealth Fund, a New York City-based national foundation that sponsors indepdent research on health and social issues. The NAAS is a public policy institute that fosters critical thinking about the implications of an aging society.
At any rate, NAAS director Robert Friedland says the facts "should make policy makers wary of enacting major changes based solely on anxiety about projected increases in the number of elderly people". "The word we should be focusing on is challenge, not crisis". According to Friedland, the so-called "unprecedented" demographics aren't unprecedented. Rapid growth in the older population has happened before. And guess what? We're all still around. The economy couldn't be better. "We should analyze how society has adapted to demographic changes in the past as a guide to how we might adapt in the future."
The NAAS makes an interesting case for their "non-mainstream", "non-alarmist" perspective on the future of an Aging America. Here's a few NAAS points on this issue.
- Demographic change hasn't always spelled doom.
Yes, the nation's elderly population may double in the next 35 years. But, it has already doubled since 1960 without any devastating consequences.
- Aging America isn't what it used to be.
Today's elderly are healthier, wealthier, and better educated as a group than the elderly of any previous generation.
- Demography isn't an exact science.
No one knows for sure just how large the elderly population will be in the future, since trends in life expectancy, immigration, and other factors are difficult to predict. Depending on many of these trends, the U.S. Census Bureau has projected, there may be as few as 288 million Americans in the year 2040 or as many as 458 million. That's a difference of almost 60 percent.
All this leads to the proverbial "bottom line". Let's plan for the future. But those future plans need to be anchored in reality, not hysteria. Afterall, the Baby Boom Crisis theory is just one scenario. A scenario full of sound and fury, that at least for now, signifies nothing.
See related articles in the AgeVenture archives.
Boomers Better Prepared for Menopause
Medicare's Future Busted By Boomers
Science Helps Boomers Battle Premature Aging
American Boomers to Inherit $10 Trillion
Aging? Boomers say "Hell no, we won't go"
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David Demko reports on lifestyle issues and trends in Aging America.
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